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It’s a sign of the times that THE FALL GUY fell short of expectations with its $28.5M opening.

Hollywood handicappers had FALL climbing to $30-40M while more exuberant pundits saw $50-60M in their crystal balls.

Despite a strong marketing campaign by Universal, FALL fell victim to the multiplex malaise that set in post-pandemic and deepened after the AMPTP’s self-destructive 2023 contract negotiations with SAG-AFTRA & WGA. Had Hollywood handled that better, the Summer Season would have gotten off to a happier start with Disney/Marvel’s DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE, which was delayed for post-production work until 7/26.

The overall marketplace, per Comscore Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarabedian, totaled $73.4M, up 12% from the prior weekend, but down 55% vs. this time last year. Comscore’s year to date tally has 2024 at $2.01B, down 21% from $2.75B in 2023.

Meanwhile, back at the multiplexes: Universal/87 North’s PG-13 action dramedy THE FALL GUY, directed by David Leitch (JOHN WICK) and starring Ryan Gosling & Emily Blunt, was #1 with $28.5M at 4,002 theatres ($7,121). It reportedly cost $130M after Australia tax credits.

FALL is tracking best for first choice with men under 25 (six points over norm) and next best with men over 25 (five points). Women under 25 don’t care (two points under norm). Women over 25 are three points over norm. Rotten Tomatoes critics are happy at 83% and audiences like it at 87%.

Disney/20th Century Studios’ 25th anniversary reissue of STAR WARS: EPISODE 1 — THE PHANTOM MENACE opened #2 to an overperforming $8.1M at 2,700 theatres ($2,993). Saturday projections had it opening third to $7.2M. (For more about MENACE, check out my current FILM FLASHBACK report.)

MGM/Amazon’s CHALLENGERS dropped two pegs to third place in weekend two with $7.6M(-49%) at 3,477 theatres ($2,198). Saturday expectations were for second place with $8.7M. It’s done $29.5M domestic and reportedly cost $55M to produce.

Sony/Screen Gems’ PG-13 horror thriller “TAROT,” was #4 with $6.M at 3,104 theatres ($2,094). It’s tracking best with women over 25 (one point over norm) and next best with women under 25 (equal to norm). Men don’t care. It reportedly cost just $8M to produce. RT critics are burying it with 12% and audiences are ice cold at 59%.

As for next weekend’s wide releases: Disney/20th Century Studios’ PG-13 sci-fi action adventure KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should spark a boxoffice heat wave. Media pundits expect $50-60M at about 3,900 theatres.

It’s tracking best with men under 25 (14 points over norm) and next best with men over 25 (13 points over norm). Women under 25 don’t care (two points under norm). Women over 25 are four points over norm.

Briarcliff/Instinct Productions’ R rated comedy NOT ANOTHER CURCH MOVIE, opening at about 3,500 theatres, is tracking below norm with all demos. Some analysts see a $5-10M opening.